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Posted: Fri Feb 1 19:27:36 2008

Election Update:

Amidst the sturm und drang, the party line remains constant

I'll keep this short. The two noteworthy events were Edwards dropping out of the race, and McCain jumping out ahead with some key wins and endoresements.

So, Edwards first. Paul Krugman had a good article about this, The Edwards Effect. His argument, and I agree completely, is that Edwards' populist campaign is the reason both Hilary and Obama are even saying anything about healthcare or the war.

But I do need to go beyond this and say that it's a normal election strategy. Both parties keep characters like this on the sidelines to attract the party faithful and provide some illusion that the party is actually representative of ordinary people's concerns. Now that Edwards is out, Krugman's concern is what's goign to happen with all the Edwards enthusiasts. I'll take it one step further... expect to see the two remaining candidates pay less and less lip-service to these programs until we're back to our normal levels of voter apathy.

It also explains why Obama is the "popular," "charismatic" candidate. He's charismatic in the sense that he really has shown the least enthusiasm for any popular or anti-war programs. That gets him the enthusiasm of his party, the bureaucracy, business and the media.

Which brings me to our buddy McCain. The LA Times had an op-ed piece "McCain's Doves" about the apparent contradiction between McCain's "ultra-hawk" stance on Iraq, and his appeal to the anti-war vote. It's simple, really: people vote on the issues.

Huh, you say? Bear with me. The fact is, nobody at this point is against the war, in fact they've assured all the right people that they'll carry it on. The difference between them and McCain is that they hide their opinions from the public in code-speak, while McCain is up-front with his support and disagreements with the war.

Meanwhile, he's taken away every argument the Democrats have against the war in Iraq. Remember, Democrats don't oppose the war. They're opposed to the way it's being run, to the embezzlement and corruption, to the chicken-hawks running it. I think they're opposed to torture but I'm not sure. McCain's history solidly overcomes all that.

I know there's a lot of debate out there about who can be charismatic enough to win, thinking people vote for a good looking guy. It's not just condescending, it's also a lot of bull. The people I met who say this are ironically the Obama supporters who won't look past his "image."

So, I repeat, people will take these issues to the polls. If any choice we have is for the war, at least let's vote for a guy who's proven himself not to be an ass about it.

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